Office of Shared Accountability Reports

Predicting Grade 6 Marking Period One Performance Using Grade 3 Semester One Indicators


The purpose of this study was to examine the Grade 3 academic, social, and behavioral indicators that are associated with academic performance in Grade 6.

  • The regression analysis revealed that of the Grade 3 semester one report card measures, the behavioral indicators of returning completed homework and completing classwork, and the academic indicators of reading comprehension, listening comprehension, writing process, usage/grammar/punctuation/capitalization, mathematics concepts, mathematics application/problem solving, and social studies were the significant predictors of Grade 6 marking period average (MPA) quarter 1 performance.
  • Descriptive analysis revealed that one third of the students who had an MPA below 3.0 at the end of quarter 1 of Grade 6 failed at least two courses in Grade 9.


  • Schools should monitor students' academic and behavioral indicators over time as early as Grade 3 and provide the necessary support needed for individual students who might be at academic risk.
  • Develop a monitoring tool so schools can identify students needing academic intervention as early as mid-year of Grade 3 to address academic performance and behavior before students enter Grade 6.
  • Provide training to schools on how to use the tool and how to bring in additional data that they deem appropriate.
  • The MCPS parent and community partnership should be engaged in the conversation of the importance of academic achievement of students in Grade 3 and its relevance to academic performance in middle and high school.
  • The Office of Shared Accountability should update the model as needed to ensure the prediction accuracy of the model.

    File Name: Grade_3_Indicators_07_23_12.pdf (329KB PDF)